AFU's position in Bakhmut

Executive Summary

March 28, 2023

Since the start of March 2023, AFU's positioning in Bakhmut has been degraded largely due to increased pressure from 'expandable' Russian forces, Ukrainian shell-hunger, as well as disadvantageous topography. This could prove critical to the presumed goals of executing an offensive manoeuvre in the east/south in spring/summer, as Ukrainian manpower and resources are being spent on static defences. Some analysts have expressed concerns of a potential domino effect, which leaving Bakhmut could lead to, in light of increased Russian military pressure on Avdiivka, Toretsk, and Siversk, however, the potential loss of capabilities in Bakhmut could prove more dangerous for AFU. While some political gains of such decisions, might be realised in the short-term, both internal and foreign political relations might also be affected negatively from the decision to hold the town.

Bakhmut Projection

SRTM_30 (exaggerated)
Data: OSM & @Suriyakmaps

MW: Qgis2threejs

NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)(2013). Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Global. Distributed by OpenTopography. https://doi.org/10.5069/G9445JDF. Accessed: 2023-03-20

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