The War in Ukraine
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a complex and long-standing dispute with roots dating back to the early 20th century. The conflict has largely been fought over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, an area in the South Caucasus that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has been under the de facto control of ethnic Armenian forces since the early 1990s.
In 2020, the conflict escalated into a full-scale war, with both sides deploying military forces and heavy weaponry. The war saw significant advances and setbacks for both sides, with Azerbaijani forces making gains in the south and Armenians launching counter-offensives in the north. The turning point came in November 2020, when Azerbaijani forces, with the support of Turkish drones and military advisors, captured the strategic city of Shusha, which provided a clear path to the region's capital, Stepanakert. This led to a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia, which saw Azerbaijani forces retain control over significant portions of the disputed territory.
Overall, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been characterized by its complex mix of ethnic, territorial, and geopolitical factors, and the recent war demonstrated the importance of modern military technologies, including drones and electronic warfare capabilities. The conflict also highlighted the role of external actors such as Turkey and Russia, who provided military and diplomatic support to their respective allies.
With the recent escalation of military talk, as well as troop movement along the border areas, insight into the conflict becomes key for understanding and managing the risk in the region. Considering EU countries and Iran's growing influences and Russia's decreasing one, the situation both on the ground and in terms of geopolitics is fertile for a rapid change and potentially an escalation.
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Yemen Civil War
The Yemen civil war, also known as the Yemeni conflict, is a protracted conflict that began in 2014 and has since plunged the country into a humanitarian crisis. The conflict is primarily fought between two main factions: the internationally recognized government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, backed by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the Houthi rebels, who control the capital city of Sana'a and are supported by Iran.
The conflict has seen both sides engage in intense ground battles, with significant fighting taking place in the port city of Hodeidah, a critical gateway for humanitarian aid and commercial goods. The conflict has also seen the extensive use of aerial bombardments and missile strikes, with both sides using advanced weapons systems and tactics. The conflict has caused immense suffering for Yemeni civilians, with tens of thousands killed and millions displaced, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis.
The conflict has also seen a complex mix of internal and external factors, including tribal conflicts, sectarian tensions, and geopolitical rivalries. The conflict has drawn in regional and international actors, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, who have provided military and diplomatic support to their respective allies. Overall, the Yemen civil war represents a multifaceted and deeply entrenched conflict, with no clear end in sight, despite multiple rounds of peace talks and ceasefires.
Recent developments include the increased activity of AQAP and Iran, which could lead to a new massive escalation in the country, thus plunging the relatively safe for work south into a war-time economic and political deadlock, hence forcing foreign investments out of the country and increasing the humanitarian cost of the conflict. Saudi diplomatic activity in respect to the Houthis could, however, deliver some respectable peace agreements, as the country tries to gain advantages on the geopolitical scene, especially in relation to the Middle East.
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Syria Civil War
The Syrian civil war is a devastating conflict that began in 2011, following a wave of protests against the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The conflict has since escalated into a multifaceted and protracted war, involving a wide range of actors, both domestic and foreign.
The conflict has been characterized by its intense ground battles, with both the Syrian government forces and various opposition groups engaging in fierce fighting across the country. The conflict has also seen the extensive use of aerial bombardments, chemical weapons, and other advanced weapons systems, leading to immense suffering for Syrian civilians.
The conflict has seen a complex mix of domestic and international factors, including sectarian tensions, geopolitical rivalries, and the rise of extremist groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS). The conflict has drawn in a wide range of actors, including regional powers such as Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, as well as global powers such as the United States and Russia, who have provided military and diplomatic support to their respective allies.
Despite multiple rounds of peace talks and ceasefires, the conflict remains ongoing, with no clear end in sight. The conflict has caused immense damage to the country's infrastructure, displaced millions of people, and created a severe humanitarian crisis.
With current increase in strikes against US-supported SDF-controlled areas, as well as the increased activity of Turkey in the north-west, the conflict could escalate into a new stage, in which Russia's influence may not be enough for stopping a collapse of Assad's forces, which are under increased domestic pressure from malpractices in regards to the recent humanitarian crisis stemming form February's devastating earthquake.
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